The US-South Korea alliance has long been seen by both countries as a cornerstone of peace in the region, where North Korea continues to threaten South Korea and the US with its illegal weapons program.
That threat has only become more acute as North Korea has ramped up its partnership with Russia, sending ammunition, missiles, and soldiers, intelligence officials say, to aid Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
“Any instability in South Korea has major ramifications for our Indo-Pacific policies,” retired US Col. Cedric Leighton told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, pointing to how US troops in the country are geared for a “fight tonight” scenario against North Korea. “The less stability there is in South Korea the worse it gets for us to fulfill our policy goals.”
US President Joe Biden has worked assiduously during his time in office to bolster the US partnership with South Korea, meeting Yoon multiple times, referring to the South Korean leader as a “great friend,” and earlier this year passing his “Summit for Democracy” to Yoon to host in South Korea.
Biden’s efforts also included a landmark 2023 summit at Camp David with Japan and South Korea, where the US president navigated around historic mistrust between the two US allies to broker enhanced trilateral coordination.
A US National Security Council spokesperson expressed “relief” after Yoon reversed course on what the spokesperson described as his “concerning declaration,” adding that “democracy is at the foundation” of the US-South Korea alliance.
Despite US assurances that the alliance remains “ironclad,” the surprise move by Yoon could cast a level of doubt on the partnership and weaken the burgeoning Japan-South Korea partnership, observers say.
It also adds another level of uncertainty on the eve of the return to the White House of President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously expressed skepticism about the financial arrangement between the US and South Korea on hosting US troops.
“Yoon’s actions most likely will raise questions about South Korea’s reliability and predictability as an ally and a partner in the eyes of the United States and Japan,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
“This is serious in light of the fact that there is now a stronger-than ever nuclear component in the (US-South Korea) alliance,” she added, pointing to a 2023 mechanism upgrading cooperation on nuclear deterrence between the US and South Korea, which does not have its own nuclear weapons but relies on the US arsenal.
Troubled neighborhood
The political turmoil also raises a potential opening for Kim Jong Un to capitalize on the chaos.
The North Korean leader is known to choose opportune political moments for major weapons tests – for example firing a new intercontinental ballistic missile days before the US presidential election last month.
“We know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea’s democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul,” said Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who focuses on the Korean Peninsula.
“We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise,” he said.
The developments – and the potential, now, for a change of leadership in South Korea – are also likely being closely watched by Beijing and Moscow, who both deeply oppose US military presence in Asia.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his officials in particular have watched with ire as the US has strengthened its partnerships with allies in the region – in the face of concerns in Washington about a growing threat from Beijing and its deepening security coordination with Moscow.
And Yoon, who’s taken a harder line on North Korea than many of his predecessors, has been a willingly staunch partner of the US.
The Yoon government has also suggested that deployment of North Korean troops into Ukraine could cause it to reassess the level of military support it gives to the war-torn country, to which it does not directly supply lethal arms.
All that raises the international stakes for the current political moment, whatever its outcome for Yoon, according to Howell.
“At a time when South Korea’s interests in the Ukraine war have gained prominence, given North Korea’s now full-fledged involvement, Seoul’s cooperation with allies cannot be hampered by domestic division,” he said.
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